Seasonal Differences of Model Predictability and the Impact of SST in the Pacific
  • 【摘要】

    Both seasonal potential predictability and the impact of SST in the Pacific on the forecast skill over China are investigated by using a 9-level global atmospheric general circulation model developed ... 展开>>Both seasonal potential predictability and the impact of SST in the Pacific on the forecast skill over China are investigated by using a 9-level global atmospheric general circulation model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics under the Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP9L-AGCM). For each year during 1970 to 1999, the ensemble consists of seven integrations started from consecutive observational daily atmospheric fields and forced by observational monthly SST. For boreal winter, spring and summer,the variance ratios of the SST-forced variability to the total variability and the differences in the spatial correlation coefficients of seasonal mean fields in special years versus normal years are computed respectively. It follows that there are slightly inter-seasonal differences in the model potential predictability in the Tropics. At northern middle and high latitudes, prediction skill is generally low in spring and relatively high either in summer for surface air temperature and middle and upper tropospheric geopotential height or in winter for wind and precipitation. In general, prediction skill rises notably in western China, especially in northwestern China, when SST anomalies (SSTA) in the Nino-3 region are significant. Moreover,particular attention should be paid to the SSTA in the North Pacific (NP) if one aims to predict summer climate over the eastern part of China, i.e., northeastern China, North China and southeastern China. 收起<<

  • 【作者】

  • 【作者单位】

    Nansen-Zhu International Research Center

  • 【刊期】

    大气科学进展(英文版) ISTIC SCI 2005年1期

  • 【关键词】

    predictability  IAP9L-AGCM  sea surface temperature 

  • 【基金项目】

    This research was jointly supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Project under contract KZCX3-SW-221 国家自然科学基金