Prediction Research of Climate Change Trends over North China in the Future 30 Years
  • 【摘要】

    A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IA... 展开>>A simulation of climate change trends over North China in the past 50 years and future 30 years was performed with the actual greenhouse gas concentration and IPCC SRES B2 scenario concentration by IAP/LASG GOALS 4.0 (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land system coupled model), developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modelling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). In order to validate the model,the modern climate during 1951-2000 was first simulated by the GOALS model with the actual greenhouse gas concentration, and the simulation results were compared with observed data. The simulation results basically reproduce the lower temperature from the 1960s to mid-1970s and the warming from the 1980sfor the globe and Northern Hemisphere, and better the important cold (1950-1976) and warm (1977-2000)periods in the past 50 years over North China. The correlation coefficient is 0.34 between simulations and observations (significant at a more than 0.05 confidence level). The range of winter temperature departures for North China is between those for the eastern and western China's Mainland. Meanwhile, the summer precipitation trend turning around the 1980s is also successfully simulated. The climate change trends in the future 30 years were simulated with the CO2 concentration under IPCC SRES-B2 emission scenario.The results show that, in the future 30 years, winter temperature will keep a warming trend in North China and increase by about 2.5℃ relative to climate mean (1960-1990). Meanwhile, summer precipitation will obviously increase in North China and decrease in South China, displaying a south-deficit-north-excessive pattern of precipitation. 收起<<

  • 【作者】

  • 【作者单位】

    Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration/Laboratory for Climate Studies of China Meteorological Administration/LASG/Meteorological and Hydrological Center of the Headquarters of the General Staff/Tangshan Meteorological Bureau

  • 【刊期】

    气象学报(英文版) SCI 2008年1期

  • 【关键词】

    GOALS 4.0  North China  CO2 concentration of B2 emission scenario  climate change projec-tion 

  • 【基金项目】

    国家自然科学基金 国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划) The Chinese Academy of Sciences innovative team of international cooperation partnership projects(the project of climate system model development and application studies)